Tourism has become a driving force for Spain in recent years. After the pandemic, the sector has bounced back spectacularly, contributing €200.7 billion to the economy.
That’s 12.6% of the country’s GDP, and without this boost, recent GDP growth would be hard to explain. While visitor numbers are expected to stabilise after a surge in the past few years, Spain is steadily closing in on a remarkable goal: overtaking France to become the world’s leading tourist destination.
Closing the gap with France
According to the latest report from Oxford Economics, Spain isn’t expected to surpass France immediately. However, its ongoing appeal as an affordable holiday destination means arrivals are steadily catching up. Spain could realistically become the world’s top destination in the coming years.
Currently, the gap is small. In 2025, Spain is expected to come close to 100 million arrivals, while France already hit 101 million in 2024, seemingly reaching its peak. But while France’s numbers may have plateaued, Spain still has room to grow.
Steady growth expected
Caixabank predicts that tourism will grow 2.7% in 2025, following spikes of 6% in 2024 and 7.9% in 2023. For 2026, they foresee an acceleration to 3.2% growth, driven by a stronger Eurozone economy and travellers from countries like Germany, Italy, and France. Increased purchasing power in Europe will continue to fuel demand for Spanish holidays.
Meanwhile, Exceltur forecasts a 2.8% tourism GDP growth for this year. However, they note that the “revenge tourism” boom, visitors spending savings built up during the pandemic, is slowing. According to Exceltur’s vice president, Óscar Perelli, tourism is no longer the main driver of Spain’s economy, with growth more in line with the national forecast of 2.6%.
A decade-long surge
Spain has already made huge strides against France. In 2010, international visitor numbers were 31% lower than France’s, but thanks to low-cost airlines and online travel agencies, the gap has now narrowed to just 6%.
Looking ahead, the World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) predicts a bright decade for Spanish tourism. By 2035, tourism could contribute €315.7 billion to GDP, more than 17% of the economy, and generate 4 million jobs, 700,000 more than today, cementing Spain’s position as a global leader.
Why growth will continue
According to Caixabank, Spain’s tourism demand is structurally strong. While France represents a more mature market, growth from countries like the US, UK, and across Asia continues. Factors supporting this include Spain’s geopolitical stability and rising disposable income in both Spain and its main source markets.
Longer term, rising middle classes in source countries could keep Spanish tourism growing. Desestacionalisation is also helping: inland regions that weren’t traditionally tourist hotspots are attracting visitors, spreading tourism beyond the summer months. Demographic trends like longer life expectancy and new working patterns mean stronger growth in off-peak seasons.
This broader distribution of visitors benefits the industry, reducing underused infrastructure and allowing greater investment, better job quality, and more sustainable growth.
Tourism in Spain: Potential challenges
Of course, challenges remain. New Mediterranean destinations are emerging as competitors, including Greece, Cyprus, Turkey, and Ukraine, with Albania and Montenegro joining the race. Spain’s traditional “sun and beach” model now faces rivals offering similar packages.
Still, according to Joan Molas, president of the Tourism Board, Spain could grow to 120 million tourists per year if it continues diversifying its offering across the calendar. This could finally achieve a milestone once thought out of reach: Spain overtaking France as the world’s top tourist destination.
