Keep the umbrella handy. A spell of wet weather is heading towards the Costa Blanca, but reports that another major DANA is definitely on the way are getting ahead of the forecast.
Rain now looks increasingly likely across the Costa Blanca during the first half of the week, with unsettled conditions expected to continue for several days.
Earlier forecasts raised the possibility of a DANA developing over the Mediterranean and affecting the Costa Blanca and Valencia. Some weather models produced eye-catching rainfall totals, which quickly generated headlines warning of another potentially serious episode.
The latest official forecast gives us something rather more useful.
Rain looks likely. Another catastrophic DANA does not.
Tuesday currently looks particularly wet
AEMET’s latest forecast points towards conditions deteriorating as the week begins.
The probability of rain increases considerably during the early part of the week, with Tuesday currently standing out as one of the wetter periods.
Showers could then continue into Wednesday and later in the week.
That makes a spell of wet weather across the Costa Blanca increasingly credible.
But there is an important difference between a high probability of rain and a forecast for torrential rain.
A 90% chance of precipitation does not mean 90% of the day will be wet, nor does it tell us how much rain will fall.
So what happened to the DANA forecast?
Several days ago, weather models suggested that cold air could become isolated at high altitude around the Mediterranean.
That type of atmospheric system is known in Spain as a DANA, short for Depresión Aislada en Niveles Altos.
Early forecasts placed the Costa Blanca and Valencia among the areas that could potentially feel its effects.
Some model scenarios produced particularly dramatic rainfall accumulations, including figures of around 150 litres per square metre for Alicante and even larger totals elsewhere.
Those figures understandably attracted attention.
But they represented possible model scenarios several days ahead, not confirmed rainfall forecasts.
Weather models move the rain around
Mediterranean weather can be notoriously difficult to pin down several days in advance.
A relatively small change in the position of an upper-level system, wind direction or sea conditions can shift the heaviest rain considerably.
One model run might place torrential rain over the Costa Blanca. Another can move the worst conditions offshore or towards Valencia, Murcia or elsewhere along the Mediterranean.
As the event gets closer, forecasters can narrow those possibilities and build a much clearer picture.
That is why colourful rainfall maps circulating a week beforehand should never carry the same weight as an official AEMET warning issued much closer to the event.
DANA rumours on the Costa Blanca
It remains possible that meteorologists will classify the developing situation as a DANA, but that label alone does not tell residents how dangerous the weather will become.
A DANA does not automatically produce catastrophic flooding.
Conversely, very heavy Mediterranean rainfall can cause serious problems regardless of whether everybody agrees on a label for the atmospheric setup.
At the moment, the forecast supports expecting rain and keeping a close eye on developments.
Bridging the Gap’s recap
- A spell of wet and unsettled weather looks increasingly likely across the Costa Blanca.
- Tuesday currently stands out as one of the wetter periods in the forecast.
- Showers could continue into Wednesday and later in the week.
- Earlier weather models raised the possibility of a DANA affecting the Costa Blanca and Valencia.
- Some early model scenarios showed very high rainfall totals, but these were possibilities rather than confirmed forecasts.
- A DANA does not automatically mean a catastrophic weather event.
Enjoy more Costa Blanca weather news.
